EUR is 10% weaker YTD, down almost 5% over the past month, and 1.4% lower today. The weaker EUR has been driven by lagging ECB interest rate hikes, downside growth risks increasing in Europe, and scarce liquidity following the July 4th holiday weekend.
Despite record inflation, the war in Ukraine is impacting the ECB’s ability to raise rates commensurate with the Fed, which makes the USD more attractive relatively speaking.
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